After oscillating throughout the trading session between a mild and moderate decline, the commercial dollar erased almost all of its losses in the final hours of trading and practically stabilized. At the end of the day, the currency closed down 0.07% at R $ 5.6008. The bias for risk seen abroad is limited by the local environment, which weighs uncertainties about emergency PEC voting, and also the dynamics of the second wave of the Kovid-19 in Brazil, which led cities and states is. To tighten their circulation restrictions.
Thus, all of the budding couples were underperforming realistically in the session. At the time of closing, the US currency fell 1.01% against the Mexican peso, 0.44% against the Russian ruble, and 1.52% against the Turkish lira.
“There was not much news in today’s trading session, but I believe the news should heat up in the next few days,” says Veni Ngame, director of the exchange for Terra Investments. “The chance to close other states in Brazil, which will hurt the economy, and concern with emergency PECs helps prevent the US currency from falling. On the other hand, intervention by the Central Bank last week also limits the negative bias of the exchange rate in Brazil. ”
Abroad, the recovery of risky assets was motivated by the approval of the tax package by the United States House. At the same time, yields on 10-year US funds continue to decrease slightly, bringing relief for investors around the world. Last week, the US stock exchanges suffered huge losses, with higher interest rates lowering companies’ profit expectations – contributing to the sour tone with which markets ended the month of February.
Here, however, the focus continues to be on emergency PECs, lessons of which are expected to hit the Senate floor this week. In the morning, the Mayor, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), confirmed that the emergency PEC should be voted on Wednesday and that the benefit was expected to be R $ 250 for four months. The MP also said that they should define the synergy for the Eletrobras MP and the PL Office’s PL later this week.
Despite a global climate of greater optimism in early March, the dollar continues to operate at $ 5.60 in Brazil, amid domestic concerns regarding the government’s fiscal and economic policy. Graphic analysts at Commerzbank note that the currency is close to its lowest level against the euro and the dollar. “The rise of the dollar against real places is recorded at a maximum rate of R $ 5.6636 and R $ 5.699, in August, September and October”, write the economists at the German bank.
This environment, however, reinforces the expectation of the beginning of the normalization of monetary policy by the Central Bank, note CTI strategists.
“We believe that Asli’s performance will be strongly linked to how fast and aggressive Copom’s high interest rates will be. To be more durable compliments, more than an upgrade will be necessary. Nevertheless, the beginning of the cycle should prove to be the first step to prevent the real from diluting their peers ”, say analysts at the US bank.
